by the Harmelin Planning Advisory Group

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY

As we move forward into the 2012 election cycle, current estimates from Kantar Media’s Campaign Media Analysis Group place a record $3.2 BILLION in television advertising from political candidates and related political organizations. This is an anticipated 52% increase in TV spending from the last presidential election in 2008. The tremendous increase can be attributed to the landmark “Citizens United” ruling by the U.S. Supreme Court in 2010 that protected corporate and union funding of political advertising under the First Amendment. The impact of the ruling was immediate; the 2010 political season had a record $2.4 billion in television advertising from political advertisers in what was a non-presidential election cycle.

The political windows for primaries (occurring January-June) are 45 days prior to the election date, and for the general election it is 60 days (September 5 - November 6).   After an analysis of spot TV data from Kantar Media, political advertising accounts for over 50% of all spot TV expenditures in the final weeks of an election cycle.  Political advertisers also look to spot TV to capture the attention of a very general target, leading to heavy, broad-based consumption of inventory.  It is this combination that leads to:

• Rate increases (between 7-15%) during the key election periods
• Inventory stresses on all dayparts
• Heavy pre-emptions of existing schedules
• Viewer fatigue of the barrage of political ads affecting overall ad attentiveness